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Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Transcending the Bretton Woods System, Either Through Smooth US Participation or Crashing Out Alone (or maybe with Britain)

Trump, the GOP, and Iran could very well shatter the Bretton Woods system when the EU, Russia, and China put their Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) into play. At the very least, the SPV could destroy the US's dominance of the system.

From what I've read, transcending the Bretton Woods system would lead to a better world. Bretton Woods has become an obsolete system that worked well for the rebuilding and development of Europe and the world after World War II up to around 1960. The US and world has floundered since then, except for China who has existed outside of the Bretton Woods system but interacts with it.

The sudden change from the Special Purpose Vehicle would hurt the US a lot. Trump should receive the blame for it, as he dropped the Iran Deal, has put up sanctions via the Bretton Woods system, and has escalated tensions even further by sending troops and military equipment to Iraq, probably to provide stronger enforcement on sanctions and ostracism than economic sanctions alone.

No, a more gradual transcendence of the Bretton Woods system would work much better for everyone. The Hothead in Chief and the GOP, however, look very intent on isolating the United States and making things difficult when the transcendence of Bretton Woods occurs.

Hopefully, it doesn't hurt too much, or we, the voters, can get cooler heads in charge of things before things go boom. Maybe we can work to apply some pressure on the current Powers That Be. Can we get the Powers to cool down on these things to prevent them from screwing the country over? Can we get the Powers to instead, participate with the world to build a better world through transcendence of the Bretton Woods system?

Even if the transcendence means giving up the power the US has by maintaining the reserve currency, the dollar, can we get the Powers to understand that transcending the Bretton Woods system probably provides the best option? The Bretton Woods system found its power in the United States giving to the rest of the world through the Marshall Plan then "giving" through neoliberal multinational corporations, offshoring jobs, and a strong dollar that helps provide a target for investment.

Trump talks about foreign trade being unfair to the United States. Trade had developed that way because back at the beginning of the Bretton Woods system, boosting up the rest of the world led to boosting up the United States. The rest of the world NEEDED to buy from the United States. By giving the rest of the world resources, the US gave itself a trade surplus and even some political capital. The rest of the world had done a good job developing and recovering by the time the '60s came around, though.

The United States had its own internal cultural issues to deal with in the '60s (and which apparently we still need to deal with), but the US had plateaued when it came to trade and the economy. Just read up on the Nixon Shock and ensuing economic history of the United States.

In my opinion, the Financial Crisis of 2008 marked the beginning of the end for the postwar era, the culmination of United States neoliberal latching onto the Bretton Woods system because the country doesn't know much of anything else. This decline could explain the current stability and hopeful absence of a decade border years crash (at most turn of the decades since the '70s, the US has faced some crash).

Trump deserves credit for having an inkling of changing economic times, but only that, an inkling. He understands that something needs to change. Nonetheless, Trump looks to go about resolving the issue wrong. Instead of bringing the world together to explore the current milieu then work out a solution, he wants to go at it alone (maybe with Britain) and to be First.

Even Trump's cries for fairness when it comes to trade might have an inkling of truth to it. I can't get behind his implication of fairness being about respecting our sovereignity. Trump's behavior doesn't lend credence to any other interpretation of his use of the word fair.

If fairness means the US getting the better side of "the deal", the reason for that resolution doesn't come from United States having more leverage. The ability of the rest of the world being able to topple the Bretton Woods economic regime with the SPV shows that the US doesn't haven't this kind of leverage. The US, especially with Trump at the head, has acted as a self-aggrandizing bully for too long. The Cold War probably provided some justification for the rest of the world accepting big honcho United States. With the Cold War officially over, though, the world doesn't have a clear black and white scorched Earth situation anymore to unite opposing sides.

The smaller countries around the world can come together in a coalition to face off against the United States, which Trump encourages with his behavior, especially with breaking the Iran Deal, setting up sanctions, and sending the military over. Since leverage won't work to strike a "fair deal", fairness needs to come from both a

  • Humble United States acknowledging that it accomplished an immense goal but has become exhausted
  • Somewhat grateful rest of the world that acknowledges that the US helped them recover for 15 or so years, the US had gotten set in its ways, and its now time for the rest of the world to provide a helping hand to the US - the balance of trade and capital has changed
Who can predict what the world will look like after transcendence? Who could expect the United States to humble itself? How does the United States deserve gratefulness after it took for granted a world order that propped up the power of the United States at the expense of other nations, especially when the United States kept moving forward on the path, ignorant or not of the damage it caused?

But the real question: How well can human civilization survive if humans turn on themselves to garner self aggrandizing superiority, especially with climate change on the horizon, ready to destroy civilization? For the sake of civilization, hopefully humans can come to their senses, com together, then transcend the Bretton Woods system together. At the very least, hopefully we can get leaders for the United States that understand the importance of participating in the transcendence rather than being left out by our own choosing.

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